MLB⚾️ Bad Bets · Monday June 22 ⚾
Sunday was a coin flip: the model went 7-7 straight-up (TOR pending) and the value side caught the bad end of a five-one-run-game slate. Ledger barely budged — 204-156, +4.3pp.
🎯 The 30-Second Read
Yesterday: the model went 7-7 straight-up, TOR @ CHC still pending. A dead-even day — the model read which way the games were going about as often as it didn’t, which is exactly what a flat slate looks like before variance picks a winner.
Where it stung was the value side. The dog/edge calls ran into a buzzsaw of close baseball — five one-run games (SD 3-4, WSH 3-4, SF 1-2, CLE 1-2, CWS 4-5) — and most of them landed on the wrong side of a run. The net signed margin across all 14 graded games was roughly -2 runs. That’s not a model breakdown; that’s a coin flip that kept landing tails in the tight ones.
The wins were the loud ones: BAL cashed 12-1 BLOWOUT @ LAD, STL took a 12-10 track meet at KC, CIN +12.8% FLIP won 4-1, LAA +9.7% FLIP won 9-7. Both FLIPs hit. When the model had real conviction, it printed.
The one that actually hurts: MIN won 4-2 at ARI — and the 5PM re-run had moved us off it onto ARI. After three days riding MIN, the lineup-aware re-run talked us off a winner. That’s the third straight disappointing 5PM outcome (Fri lock-find L, Sat lock-find L, Sun flip-off-a-winner). We’re flagging it loud.
Updated ledger: 204-156 (56.7%) across 360 graded picks — +4.3pp above the 52.4% breakeven line. A 7-7 day moves the season number by a tick. That’s what stability looks like 30 days in.
Today: the model is not flinching. Monday is the heaviest top of the week — 3 LOCKS (CHC +12.2%, COL +11.1%, MIN +10.5%), 4 STRONGS (KC +8.6%, CLE +7.4%, LAA +7.2%, STL +6.0%), and 3 PASSES. No SOLIDs, no LEANs — a barbell. And MIN is right back on the card as a +10.5% LOCK FLIP vs LAD. We got cute with it Sunday. The morning model didn’t.
🌋 Yesterday — The Model Held, The Run Column Didn’t
7-7 straight-up isn’t a story by itself. Here’s the one underneath it: the model’s reads were fine, and the value side got nicked to death by one run at a time.
Five of the day’s losses were decided by a single run. Flip two of those — and “two of five one-run games” is well within any night’s noise — and Sunday reads as a winning day. There’s no model adjustment for a 1-2 final; the projection had the game inside a run, and a run is exactly what separated it. We size at 0.25× Kelly precisely so a cluster of coin-flips landing wrong doesn’t dent the bankroll. It didn’t.
The MIN sequence is the part worth sitting with:
Friday: MIN STRONG → L 5-9.
Saturday: MIN +14.2% LOCK FLIP → W 16-8 BLOWOUT.
Sunday morning: MIN +13.3% LOCK FLIP @ ARI — the franchise play.
Sunday 5PM re-run: flipped to ARI.
Result: MIN won 4-2. The morning LOCK would have cashed. The re-run pick lost.
Three straight days the highest-conviction 5PM move has cost the column — Fri LAA lock-find, Sat CWS lock-find, Sun the MIN flip-off. The 5PM layer is supposed to add lineup-aware edge. Right now it’s subtracting it. We’re not killing a feature on a three-day sample, but the morning publish has been the better number this weekend, and the record should say so.
And then Monday morning the model puts MIN +10.5% LOCK FLIP vs LAD right back on the board. We’ll take that as the model telling us where it actually stands.
📊 Yesterday’s Full Tape — Model 7-7 (TOR pending)
The loud cashes
🟢 BAL +9.8% @ LAD — W 12-1 BLOWOUT. Day’s signature result; backside dog torched a heavy favorite.
🟢 STL +7.0% @ KC — W 12-10. A track meet, but the right side.
🟢 CIN +12.8% FLIP @ NYY — W 4-1. Cleanest of the two FLIPs.
🟢 LAA +9.7% FLIP @ OAK — W 9-7. Sixth straight LAA look paid off again.
The variance pile
🔴 Five one-run losses: SD 3-4, WSH 3-4, SF 1-2, CLE 1-2, CWS 4-5 — combined margin -5 runs across five games.
🔴 ARI — L (MIN won 4-2). The flip-off-a-winner.
🔴 COL — L (PIT won 8-6) and ATL — L (MIL won 9-4) — the two clunkers; ATL was ice-cold (3-7 L10) and stayed that way.
Net day: ≈ -2 signed runs across 14 games. A 7-7 line that, in the run column, played like the coin flip it was. Pending: TOR +11.9% @ CHC.
🧠 The Methodology Audit
The one-run problem. Five one-run losses on a single slate is the tail of the distribution doing its thing. When the tight games go cold in a cluster, the day looks worse than the process was. The model went 7-7 — it knew which way the games leaned. The bankroll math is built for exactly this kind of night, which is why a 7-7 day with a cold value side barely registered on the season number.
The 5PM layer is on the clock. Three straight days of the highest-conviction re-run move losing — Fri LAA, Sat CWS, Sun MIN→ARI — is now a real data point, not noise we get to wave off. The lineup-aware re-run is supposed to be additive; over 72 hours it hasn’t been. If you’re following the column, the morning publish has been the sharper number this weekend. Watch today’s 5PM re-run with that in mind.
FLIPs held up. Both Sunday FLIPs that cashed (CIN, LAA) were the loud wins. The model’s which-side calls were fine — the damage was magnitude and one-run variance, not direction.
Record-tier (≥+15%) stays quiet. No Sunday pick qualified for the widest-variance bucket; it holds at 2-5. Today’s biggest edge is CHC +12.2% — nothing in record-tier range. The model is, again, not stretching.
📈 Running Ledger Through Day 30
204-156 (56.7%) across 360 graded picks.
★ +4.3pp above the 52.4% breakeven line
📉 5PM methodology: under stress — three straight disappointing high-conviction outcomes (Fri/Sat/Sun). Morning publish has been the better number this weekend.
🌋 Record-tier edges (≥+15%): 2-5 — untouched Sunday, widest-variance bucket
⚾ MIN saga: L → W BLOWOUT → won 4-2 without us → back as a LOCK FLIP today
Full ledger at bad-bets.netlify.app/history.
🎯 Today’s Slate — 10 Games, Loaded
Bucket breakdown:
🔒 3 LOCKS — CHC +12.2% AGREE, COL +11.1% FLIP, MIN +10.5% FLIP
💪 4 STRONGS — KC +8.6% AGREE, CLE +7.4% AGREE, LAA +7.2% AGREE, STL +6.0% AGREE
⚪ 3 PASSES — DET +1.5%, MIA +0.6%, ATL +0.1%
It’s a barbell slate — seven actionable plays at STRONG-or-better, three dead-zone passes, and nothing in between. After a flat Sunday, the model didn’t pull in its horns; it stacked the top of the card. Two of the three LOCKS are FLIPs (COL, MIN) — fundamental directional disagreements with the market — and all four STRONGS are AGREEs, so the model and the book point the same way on the mid-tier. The model is confident on side across the board today.
🔒 LOCK · CHC +12.2% AGREE @ NYM · 7:10 PM EDT
Top edge on the board. Imanaga (CHC) vs Senga (NYM). Model has CHC at 64.8% vs a market of 52.6% — the widest model-vs-market gap of the slate. Proj CHC 5.10–3.68, total 8.78 (a low-scoring, pitching-tilted game the model still likes the favorite in).
The pen story: NYM bullpen burned 150 relief pitches L3 (75/gm) — favors CHC runs late. At CHC -122 / NYM +102, this is a near-pick’em price on a team the model makes a clear favorite. Note the Imanaga thread: he was on the mound for Sunday’s still-pending CHC game too. The model keeps coming back to this Cubs club. LOCK-tier Kelly (~4-5u).
🔒 LOCK · COL +11.1% FLIP vs BOS · 8:40 PM EDT
Coors, PF 112, 88°F — the highest-variance park in baseball, and the model is leaning into it. Feltner (COL) vs Bennett (BOS). Model has COL at 57.8% vs a market that favors BOS at 53.4% — a true FLIP, the model taking the home dog against the market’s road favorite. COL is hot (5-5 L10, 6.2 RPG, model +7%) and projects to ~6.4 runs in the thin air.
Textbook Coors profile: total 11.90, both bats live, model thinks the market is mispricing the home side. At BOS -126 / COL +105, COL is the plus-money side of a coin flip. FLIP + Coors = real variance on top of magnitude — size it as a LOCK but know what it is. LOCK-tier Kelly (~4-5u).
🔒 LOCK · MIN +10.5% FLIP vs LAD · 7:40 PM EDT
Yeah. Again. The model is right back on MIN — and after Sunday, that’s exactly the read we wanted to see. Matthews (MIN) vs Lauer (LAD). Model MIN 51.7% vs market LAD 58.8% — a clean FLIP onto the home dog. MIN stays hot (7-3 L10, 7.0 RPG, model +8%), total 12.13, projection essentially dead-even at 5.96–6.17.
The lean is the bullpen: LAD pen burned 191 relief pitches L3 (64/gm) — favors MIN runs late, the same thesis that printed in Saturday’s 16-8 blowout. At LAD -159 / MIN +132, MIN is a generous price on a team the model has had right for three days. We flipped off it once and watched it win. Not doing that twice on a morning read this strong. LOCK-tier Kelly (~4-5u).
💪 STRONG · KC +8.6% AGREE @ TB · 6:40 PM EDT
Wacha (KC) vs Rasmussen (TB), dome, PF 96. A fade-the-favorite read: model has TB at 54.9% but the market has TB at 63.6% — nearly nine points of overpricing on the Rays. KC is live (4-6 L10 but 6.4 RPG, model +6%) and the TB pen burned 164 L3 (55/gm). At KC +163 / TB -198, the model wants the plus-money dog. Largest STRONG edge on the board. STRONG-tier Kelly (~2.5-4u).
💪 STRONG · CLE +7.4% AGREE @ CWS · 7:40 PM EDT
Williams (CLE) vs Kay (CWS). Model CLE 58.4% vs market 51.0%, proj CLE 4.43–3.67, total 8.10 — a low-total game the model likes the road favorite in. The hook: CWS bullpen burned 284 relief pitches L3 (95/gm) — one of the most exhausted pens on the slate. At CLE -114 / CWS -105, you’re paying near-even for the side the model makes a clear favorite. STRONG-tier Kelly (~2.5-4u).
💪 STRONG · LAA +7.2% AGREE vs BAL · 9:38 PM EDT
The model is not done with the Angels. Aldegheri (LAA) vs Bradish (BAL). Model has BAL at 52.5% vs a market of 59.7% — over seven points of BAL overpricing, so the value flips to LAA. Proj LAA 5.44–5.17, total 10.61, and the BAL pen burned 169 L3 (56/gm) — same bullpen-exhaustion thesis that’s carried the LAA series.
This one carries the explicit Kelly 3.00u (full unit) sizing tag — the model’s notation for we want real exposure here. LAA cashed 9-7 yesterday; the model wants more. At LAA +138 / BAL -166, it’s plus money on the preferred side.
💪 STRONG · STL +6.0% AGREE vs ARI · 7:45 PM EDT
A little poetic. ARI is the team that beat us Sunday — and today the model is squarely against them. Pallante (STL) vs Kelly (ARI). Model STL 62.7% vs market 56.7%, proj STL 4.28–5.60, total 9.88.
The driver is the most-burned bullpen on the board: ARI pen burned 296 relief pitches L3 (99/gm) — nearly twice the slate average, the exact “ARI pen is fried” profile that produced late-inning runs all weekend. At ARI +121 / STL -145, the model takes the home favorite. STRONG-tier Kelly (~2.5-4u).
⚪ Pass Tier (3 Games)
For completeness — sub-2% edges, no recommended size:
DET +1.5% AGREE vs NYY — Valdez vs Cole. Model NYY 52.8% / market NYY 54.3%; NYY pen burned 181 L3. Tight edge, pass.
MIA +0.6% AGREE vs TEX — Phillips vs Rocker, dome. Model and book aligned, sharps same side. Functionally zero edge.
ATL +0.1% AGREE vs SD — Holmes vs King. ATL ice cold (3-7 L10, 2.9 RPG, model -8%) despite the SD pen burn (277 L3). No edge worth the exposure.
⚠️ Caveats
❌ Not betting advice. Model output.
📉 The 5PM re-run is in a slump — three straight disappointing high-conviction outcomes. The morning publish has been the better number this weekend. Today’s 5PM re-run posts to the site; weigh it accordingly given the run.
🌋 Record-tier edges (≥+15%) are 2-5 — none on today’s card. The widest-variance bucket stays the widest-variance bucket.
💰 Kelly sizing reminder: 0.25× Kelly, 1u = 1% bankroll. LOCK +10-15% ≈ 4-5u · STRONG +6-10% ≈ 2.5-4u · SOLID +4-6% ≈ 1.5-2.5u · LEAN +2-4% ≈ 1-1.5u · Pass <2% no size. (LAA carries an explicit 3.00u full-unit tag today.)
⚾ MIN is on the card again — a +10.5% LOCK FLIP vs LAD. We flipped off it Sunday and it won 4-2 without us. Read into that what you will.
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✅ Where We Stand
30 days in. 204-156 (56.7%), +4.3pp above breakeven. The model went 7-7 straight-up Sunday and the season number barely moved — which is the whole point of sizing for variance instead of betting your gut. The reads held; the dice landed even.
The 5PM layer is the real story, and we’re not hiding from it: three straight days the highest-conviction re-run move has cost us, capped by flipping off a MIN team that won 4-2. That’s flagged, it’s on the record, and the morning publish has earned the benefit of the doubt this weekend.
The model’s answer to a flat day is a loaded one — 3 LOCKS, 4 STRONGS, two FLIPs at the top, and MIN right back on the board. No flinch. If the seven actionable plays go 4-for-7 or better, the edge profile holds. If the FLIPs (COL, MIN) cash, the morning-over-5PM thesis gets louder.
See you tonight in Last Night’s Tape.
— T&G